That question is key to not only understanding the scale of the unprecedented health tragedy but also to framing a policy prescription for any future re-surge.

There’s a practical imperative too — by August 14, the Centre needs to get back to the Supreme Court on how it plans to pay compensation to the next of kin of those who lost their lives to Covid-19.

One ready answer is 1.69 lakh — the official Covid-19 death count for the two months reported by state governments to the Centre.

As part of the investigation, the newspaper approached several state governments of whom eight — these account for almost a third of all Covid deaths as of last week — provided records of deaths they have registered in April and May this year as per the Civil Registration System (CRS).

This data, so far unpublished, shows that the total number of “all-cause deaths” (number of deaths whatever be the cause, but excluding official Covid deaths) of these eight states is 2.04 times that of all-cause deaths for April-May 2019 (2019 has been chosen for comparison because it is a non-pandemic year).

This surge ranges from the lowest 1.23x (x being times) in Kerala to 2.92x in Madhya Pradesh. If the official Covid deaths are subtracted from these all-cause deaths, the surge multiplier comes down for all states: from 1.12x in Kerala to 2.86x in Madhya Pradesh. Cumulatively, for all states, it drops to 1.87x.

The investigation identified three patterns:

Pattern 1

The surge in deaths during the peak of the second wave is not uniform across the country. So, death numbers cannot be assumed to increase at the same rate across states — big and small.

The increase in the number of deaths varies significantly amongst states (see chart). Minus their official Covid death figures, the surge works out to these multipliers: 2.86x for Madhya Pradesh; 2.03x for Bihar; 1.21x for Jharkhand; 1.73x for Punjab; 2.44x for Haryana; 1.4x for Delhi; 1.37x for Karnataka and 1.12x for Kerala.

Pattern 2

Deaths spiked during the peak but did not rise as dramatically in the non-peak months (January-March 2021). So the high multiples during peak Covid months do not hold good for other months and, hence, cannot be extrapolated for the full year.

In most states, the surge in 2021 is restricted to just April and May. The death numbers in April-May 2021 show a surge ranging 1.23x to 3.12x in the eight states. In Punjab and Haryana though, the number of deaths during January-March this year is less than the number of deaths in January-March 2019.

Jharkhand is an exception: the death numbers are high across all five months.

Pattern 3

In states with relatively better reporting standards, the multiple is lower. Take for example, Kerala. Adjusting for official Covid-19 deaths, the total deaths in April-May 2021 is just 1.12x more than in April-May 2019. To a lesser extent, Jharkhand (1.21x), Karnataka (1.37x) and Delhi (1.4x) too.

How many people died of Covid during the brutal second wave in April and May?

That question is key to not only understanding the scale of the unprecedented health tragedy but also to framing a policy prescription for any future re-surge.

There’s a practical imperative too — by August 14, the Centre needs to get back to the Supreme Court on how it plans to pay compensation to the next of kin of those who lost their lives to Covid-19.

One ready answer is 1.69 lakh — the official Covid-19 death count for the two months reported by state governments to the Centre.

As part of the investigation, the newspaper approached several state governments of whom eight — these account for almost a third of all Covid deaths as of last week — provided records of deaths they have registered in April and May this year as per the Civil Registration System (CRS).

This data, so far unpublished, shows that the total number of “all-cause deaths” (number of deaths whatever be the cause, but excluding official Covid deaths) of these eight states is 2.04 times that of all-cause deaths for April-May 2019 (2019 has been chosen for comparison because it is a non-pandemic year).

This surge ranges from the lowest 1.23x (x being times) in Kerala to 2.92x in Madhya Pradesh. If the official Covid deaths are subtracted from these all-cause deaths, the surge multiplier comes down for all states: from 1.12x in Kerala to 2.86x in Madhya Pradesh. Cumulatively, for all states, it drops to 1.87x.

The investigation identified three patterns:

Pattern 1

The surge in deaths during the peak of the second wave is not uniform across the country. So, death numbers cannot be assumed to increase at the same rate across states — big and small.

The increase in the number of deaths varies significantly amongst states (see chart). Minus their official Covid death figures, the surge works out to these multipliers: 2.86x for Madhya Pradesh; 2.03x for Bihar; 1.21x for Jharkhand; 1.73x for Punjab; 2.44x for Haryana; 1.4x for Delhi; 1.37x for Karnataka and 1.12x for Kerala.

Pattern 2

Deaths spiked during the peak but did not rise as dramatically in the non-peak months (January-March 2021). So the high multiples during peak Covid months do not hold good for other months and, hence, cannot be extrapolated for the full year.

In most states, the surge in 2021 is restricted to just April and May. The death numbers in April-May 2021 show a surge ranging 1.23x to 3.12x in the eight states. In Punjab and Haryana though, the number of deaths during January-March this year is less than the number of deaths in January-March 2019.

Jharkhand is an exception: the death numbers are high across all five months.

Pattern 3

In states with relatively better reporting standards, the multiple is lower. Take for example, Kerala. Adjusting for official Covid-19 deaths, the total deaths in April-May 2021 is just 1.12x more than in April-May 2019. To a lesser extent, Jharkhand (1.21x), Karnataka (1.37x) and Delhi (1.4x) too.